Georgia Guidestones

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 Adequacy of World Food Supplies
 5. Growing populations will have a serious impact on the need for food especially in the
 poorest, fastest growing LDCs. While under normal weather conditions and assuming food
 production growth in line with recent trends, total world agricultural production could expand
 faster than population, there will nevertheless be serious problems in food distribution and
 financing, making shortages, even at today's poor nutrition levels, probable in many of the larger
 more populous LDC regions. Even today 10 to 20 million people die each year due, directly or
 indirectly, to malnutrition. Even more serious is the consequence of major crop failures which
 are likely to occur from time to time.
 6. The most serious consequence for the short and middle term is the possibility of
 massive famines in certain parts of the world, especially the poorest regions. World needs for
 food rise by 2-1/2 percent or more per year (making a modest allowance for improved diets and
 nutrition) at a time when readily available fertilizer and well-watered land is already largely
 being utilized. Therefore, additions to food production must come mainly from higher yields.
 Countries with large population growth cannot afford constantly growing imports, but for them
 to raise food output steadily by 2 to 4 percent over the next generation or two is a formidable
 challenge. Capital and foreign exchange requirements for intensive agriculture are heavy, and are
 aggravated by energy cost increases and fertilizer scarcities and price rises. The institutional,
 technical, and economic problems of transforming traditional agriculture are also very difficult to
 overcome.
 7. In addition, in some overpopulated regions, rapid population growth presses on a
 fragile environment in ways that threaten longer-term food production: through cultivation of
 marginal lands, overgrazing, desertification, deforestation, and soil erosion, with consequent
 destruction of land and pollution of water, rapid siltation of reservoirs, and impairment of inland
 and coastal fisheries.
 Mineral and Fuel
 8. Rapid population growth is not in itself a major factor in pressure on depletable
 resources (fossil fuels and other minerals), since demand for them depends more on levels of
 industrial output than on numbers of people. On the other hand, the world is increasingly
 dependent on mineral supplies from developing countries, and if rapid population frustrates their
 prospects for economic development and social progress, the resulting instability may undermine
 the conditions for expanded output and sustained flows of such resources.
 9. There will be serious problems for some of the poorest LDCs with rapid population
 growth. They will increasingly find it difficult to pay for needed raw materials and energy.
 Fertilizer, vital for their own agricultural production, will be difficult to obtain for the next few
 years. Imports for fuel and other materials will cause grave problems which could impinge on the
 U.S., both through the need to supply greater financial support and in LDC efforts to obtainCONFIDENTIAL
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 better terms of trade through higher prices for exports.
 Economic Development and Population Growth
 10. Rapid population growth creates a severe drag on rates of economic development
 otherwise attainable, sometimes to the point of preventing any increase in per capita incomes. In
 addition to the overall impact on per capita incomes, rapid population growth seriously affects a
 vast range of other aspects of the quality of life important to social and economic progress in the
 LDCs.
 11. Adverse economic factors which generally result from rapid population growth include:
 -- reduced family savings and domestic investment;

-- increased need for large amounts of foreign exchange for food imports;
 -- intensification of severe unemployment and underemployment;
 -- the need for large expenditures for services such as dependency support,
  education, and health which would be used for more productive investment;
 -- the concentration of developmental resources on increasing food production
  to ensure survival for a larger population, rather than on improving living
  conditions for smaller total numbers.
 12. While GNP increased per annum at an average rate of 5 percent in LDCs over the last
 decade, the population increase of 2.5 percent reduced the average annual per capita growth rate
 to only 2.5 percent. In many heavily populated areas this rate was 2 percent or less. In the LDCs
 hardest hit by the oil crisis, with an aggregate population of 800 million, GNP increases may be
 reduced to less than 1 percent per capita per year for the remainder of the 1970's. For the poorest
 half of the populations of these countries, with average incomes of less than $100, the prospect is
 for no growth or retrogression for this period.
 13. If significant progress can be made in slowing population growth, the positive impact
 on growth of GNP and per capita income will be significant. Moreover, economic and social
 progress will probably contribute further to the decline in fertility rates.
 14. High birth rates appear to stem primarily from:
 a. inadequate information about and availability of means of fertility control;
 b. inadequate motivation for reduced numbers of children combined with motivation
  for many children resulting from still high infant and child mortality and need for
 support in old age; andCONFIDENTIAL
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  c. the slowness of change in family preferences in response to changes in
 environment.
 15. The universal objective of increasing the world's standard of living dictates that
 economic growth outpace population growth. In many high population growth areas of the world,
 the largest proportion of GNP is consumed, with only a small amount saved. Thus, a small
 proportion of GNP is available for investment - the "engine" of economic growth. Most experts
 agree that, with fairly constant costs per acceptor, expenditures on effective family planning
 services are generally one of the most cost effective investments for an LDC country seeking to
 improve overall welfare and per capita economic growth. We cannot wait for overall
 modernization and development to produce lower fertility rates naturally since this will
 undoubtedly take many decades in most developing countries, during which time rapid
 population growth will tend to slow development and widen even more the gap between rich and
 poor.
 16. The interrelationships between development and population growth are complex and
 not wholly understood. Certain aspects of economic development and modernization appear to be
 more directly related to lower birth rates than others. Thus certain development programs may
 bring a faster demographic transition to lower fertility rates than other aspects of development.
 The World Population Plan of Action adopted at the World Population Conference recommends
 that countries working to affect fertility levels should give priority to development programs and
 health and education strategies which have a decisive effect on fertility. International cooperation
 should give priority to assisting such national efforts. These programs include: (a) improved
 health care and nutrition to reduce child mortality, (b) education and improved social status for
 women; (c) increased female employment; (d) improved old-age security; and (e) assistance for
 the rural poor, who generally have the highest fertility, with actions to redistribute income and